"Time to Adoption" (TTA) is the New Black

The Clock is ticking faster

Some Executive of a certain DVD rental company in the US once said in an interview, that he doesn’t believe in movie streaming on demand via the internet. This is some years ago. His company is no more. Movie streaming reigns supreme via Apple, Amazon, Netflix and others. A spokesman of the global energy institute denies the feasibility of renewables replacing carbon and nuclear in the next decades in a documentary called “The 4^th Revolution” by a german film maker. I guess he’ll not see himself proven right. Who knows what will become of his employer. 

All throughout history, the existing is challenged by the upcoming. The old are challenged by the young. Adaptability is what makes you last. Refusing to adapt means refusing to survive. Those who denied electricity, did not last. Those who denied the first industrial revolution, were left behind. Those who denied the internet, perished. I guess that is why almost every car manufacturer by now is about to (or trying to, I should say …) adopt electric and hybrid cars. Tesla leads the way. Asian manufacturers are closing in. BMW is the only german brand truly up for it. The rest is stumbling behind. And some will be gone by mid of this century, as soon as the self-driving car becomes market relevant. An industry as old and concrete-headed as the car industry is not able to change as a whole. Some will, some won’t – and thus will be gone by 2050. Just like it happened ever since the car was invented and horse-traders went down. 

Essentially, the time from introduction of an innovation that really changes an industry, until the adoption of this innovation is what I'd call the "Time to Adoption" (TTA). This timeframe defines how long a company needs to adopt an essential change in its market and industry. Those who have a small TTA, are more likely to survive. Those who take longer, less likely. 

In addition to that, the efforts to adopt to an innovation or paradigm will increase inevitably over time. Therefore, the likelihood of a company ultimately going down due to ignorance of an innovation is one thing. The likelihood of a company having to invest more and more money the longer it waits to adopt a new trend effectively, is another. 

The below graphic inspired me initially to write about this, it describes the above topic from the perspective of each innovation and the time of it to be adopted: 

Graphic

source: http://www.businessinsider.com/blackrock-topic-we-should-be-paying-attention-charts-2015-12?IR=T

The misconception is that mobile- and cloud-native companies are not struggling with these new paradigms and concepts – wrong! How could they? They were “born” into them. Just like I was born into a world where television and personal computers were basics and mobile phones a bit common already. Those struggling are the ones that have been here before, commercial and public institutions that often fail to adopt. Then, they become over-burdneded with last-minute adoption efforts or sometimes even get crushed entirely. 

I assume that the timeframe between introduction to the market and wide-spread adoption of new technologies and concepts will become smaller and smaller in the future, looking at a correlation with Cost-to-remediate rising. 

I would be happy to have your thoughts on this one and please: feel free to rip this idea apart, if you find flaws in it. Add to it or refine it wherever necessary. The glory is all yours. 

Thank you - and remember the TTA.